The Vocal Minority

The new spate of AT&T network bashing that has accompanied the introduction of Apple's iPhone for Verizon has me rereading David Sleight's blog post analyzing the feedback from a major redesign. The entire post is very good, and you should read it in its entirety, but what particularly grabbed my attention was the last paragraph:

During an interesting chat Chris Fahey set me on the right track by pointing out something I’d overlooked: Negatives want to affect [sic] change, Positives are confirming assent. I hadn’t thought of it that way before, but he’s absolutely right, and it explains a lot about their respective behavior. Negatives have the motivation to act since they want something done. Positives stay mum because, ultimately, they want nothing done.

The description of "Negatives" as users who want to effect change seems generally applicable to many situations in which it is difficult to get hard data to support an argument. It seems particularly applicable to situations widely reported by technology-oriented media. Sure, there are plenty of "AT&T drops calls, Verizon's network is better" blog posts, and a ton of "me too" comments on those posts, but do the posters and commentors represent any kind of majority of network users, or could they be a very vocal minority? An informal (and statistically insignificant) poll of friends and family who have AT&T feel that their service is entirely satisfactory. Some reported frequent dropped calls and spotty coverage in particular areas. The thing is, conducting the same poll with friends and family on Verizon netted the same results. In the end, physical location was the most important factor in cell phone carrier performance.

As an exercise in curiosity, I did a few quick queries on Google hoping to get an idea of how much of a link there was between the iPhone and AT&T's perceived network deficiencies. It's a decidedly unscientific experiment at best, but it seems to me there is a pretty strong link.

AT&T dropped calls (254,000)
AT&T dropped calls -iphone (82,000)
AT&T dropped calls -verizon (108,000)
at&t dropped calls -iphone -verizon (48,100)

Verizon dropped calls (254,000)
verizon dropped calls -AT&T (97,600)
verizon dropped calls -iphone (85,500)
verizon dropped calls -iphone -at&t (51,300)

sprint dropped calls (170,000)
sprint dropped calls -iphone (78,000)

The number in parentheses is the number of results returned by Google for each query. As I said this little experiment is far from conclusive, but there is clearly a link between

Then, there is the iPhone 4 antenna problem. Shortly after the iPhone 4 was released, reports of a problem with the antenna surfaced, and quickly became huge news. How many people really suffered from the "flaw" in Apple's design? As Engadget's Nilay Patel reports, "...Apple's sold well over two million iPhone 4s, and [Engadget simply hasn't] heard the sort of outcry from users that [they'd] normally hear if a product this high-profile and this popular had a showstopping defect."

In the end, the vocal minority is going to have its say, but don't forget to look at the big picture.

Too Little, Too Late

Oh AT&T, when will you learn? You aren't going to retain customers by offering the same service they can get elsewhere. Customers who have decided to drop your service and go to Verizon didn't decide to switch because "the grass looked just as green on the other side". If you want to keep your iPhone subscriber base, and continue to grow it, for that matter, you have to offer something Verizon doesn't. Here's an idea: start with free Wi-Fi tethering. While Verizon is charging people extra every month for data they've already paid for, you come out smelling like roses (I know, that's two cliches in one post, but so be it). The point is you don't differentiate yourself by offering the same thing as someone else (unless you're pointing out that you made a mistake by eliminating unlimited data). Verizon is new to iPhone owners, you've got to offer something new too.

The End of an Era?

As expected, Verizon will begin offering Apple's iPhone. The iPhone, for better or worse, is the premier smartphone in America, the mobile device by which all others are judged. Unfortunately for AT&T, the popularity of the iPhone, particularly among tech-oriented people, has dragged the flaws of AT&T's network squarely into the limelight. Much has been made of AT&T's lack of reliability and network coverage, but I think the tables may turn when people start using iPhones on Verizon. Although Verizon's coverage is generally pretty good, their 3G network is slow compared to AT&T and they lack simultaneous voice and data capability (on 3G). More importantly, I think people are going to discover that Verizon's vaunted reliability is probably just as spotty as AT&T's, perhaps more so with regards to the timely delivery of SMS messages

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